01
Jan
11

Here we come, ready or not!

Compare the population pyramid of the USA whic...
Image via Wikipedia

On this date 65 years ago the first kids of what would become the “Baby Boom Generation” started to build perhaps the most influential demographic in US history. Today the first ones turn a symbolic and practical corner by entering the traditional 65-year-olds bracket. It’s like the first play of the fourth quarter of a football game. There’s more game ahead, but the end is palpably approaching.

I got a three-week jump on the gang. I was born in December 1945, but I still count myself in that social bracket. It took awhile for a social perception of the big population bulge to emerge and longer to find out what the consequences would be. As the “pig in the python” moved through the decades the sheer size of the population affected everything from education to social norms to defense practices.

Now here we are at another key point. We’ve gotten better at understanding that such a large population pool has social, political, and economic consequences, but in the US we still don’t do much to actually prepare for things. Ken Dyctwald has been talking about the “Age Wave” since I was in public health grad-school 40 years ago. He’s made a career and an industry out of spelling out what’s coming…but knowing that the hurricane is swirling around and heading to shore hasn’t produced great preparation. The Age Wave may result in something Katrina-like because, in the US, we have ideological prejudice against planning. No, we prefer to wait until the calamity is upon us and then scramble to survive. After it’s over we proclaim: “We made some mistakes but we learned from this disaster and it’ll never happen again.” Famous last words, over and over.

I’ve gotta say, already having my Medicare card in my pocket and Social Security checks being deposited in the bank is comforting. It’s the people at the back of the Boomer cohort that have more reason to sweat it. The denouement of the Baby Boom generation is one of the huge dynamic factors that, along with others, suggest to me that the future will be like a vortex–hence the name of this blog–of swirling forces that’ll send us all spinning. For what it’s worth, here we come.

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