29
Jun
10

Uh-oh. In the minority…again

After my last post about the Australian scientist, Frank Fenner’s, apocalyptic prediction that humans would be extinct in 100 years — give or take a few — I decided to look around at how optimistic or pessimistic others are about the future. I didn’t have to look far. Today I ran across a survey by the Pew Research Center for People and the Press for Smithsonian.com about how optimistic Americans are about the next 40 years.

Well, Americans are plenty optimistic. The Pew summary starts: “Imagine a future in which cancer becomes a memory, ordinary people travel in space, and computers carry on conversations like humans.”

OK, I can do that! After all, I’ve been reading forecasts like that going back the the 1950s. Popular Science magazine did a lot of lists of what was going to happen and great drawings of people doing things like riding moving sidewalks. And, sure enough, 50 years later when I go to the airport there’s a moving sidewalk.

The other part of the survey intro is not so rosy, however: “Now imagine a darker future – a world beset by war, rising temperatures and energy shortages, one where the United States faces a terrorist attack with nuclear weapons.” Indeed, the survey is a mixture of up and down votes.

Many Americans see dramatic scientific and technological advancements on the horizon, with big developments in medicine, engineering, space travel and computers. However, despite the widely anticipated scientific breakthroughs – including the elimination of fossil fuels and gas-powered cars – the public foresees a  grim environmental future. Rising world temperatures, more polluted oceans and severe water shortages in the U.S. are seen as definite or probable over the next 40 years.

The survey is worth taking a look at. For my money, however, many of the questions frame the issues in such simplistic language that I wonder what people really intend with their limited answer choices. For instance, having been in the field of cancer public health for over 35 years I cringe when I see people were asked: “How likely do you think it is that…there will be a cure for cancer?” Seventy-one percent answered they thought definitely or probably cancer would be cured.

When I went to work for a cancer organization 36 years ago we had a slogan: “We’re going to wipe out cancer in your lifetime.” Today members of the cancer science and medical community are just happy that a sustained downward trend in cancer mortality is finally occurring. We stopped talking about “wiping out” cancer about 20 years ago. And oncologists are loath to even use the term “cure” when talking about outcomes for disseminated cancer. In fact, few people know it, but the goal of many in the cancer community these days is to make cancer predominantly a chronic disease rather than an acute, fatal disease. In other words success over the next few decades would be to enable the majority of patients with a wide range of cancer types to survive one or more bouts with the disease and die of something else. That’s a laudable goal, but it’s not anywhere near “wipe out.”

To think of cancer as one disease for which there will be a universal “cure” — that’s what the phrasing of the question implies — is kind of a throwback to the naive idea of several decades ago that cancer can be eradicated. It’s a basic misunderstanding of the disease. Unlike communicable disease, cancer is not something that attacks you from outside; it’s a malfunction of essential processes at the core of cellular life. I recall a breast cancer researcher who said every time a cell divides there’s a little risk of heading towards cancer.

Progress is being made these days, but the lengthy process of testing new approaches not to mention the enormous costs associated with recent cancer treatments means that there a huge obstacles besides the disease itself to having a big impact on the population. So, the last day I was in my office when I retired six months ago, I found myself reassuring some young staff who were just starting their careers that there would still be a big cancer problem for decades to come. In other words, they’re not going to have to change careers because a sudden “cure” arrives.

The Pew survey suggests to me that the public is finally adjusting to the reality that dealing with cancer will take much longer than anyone could imagine a few decades ago. The figure showing that in 2010 71% of respondents expecting a cure is down from 81% in 1999. A drop in the number of people expecting a cancer cure in the next 40 years may not be “pessimism” but a more realistic assessment of the situation instead.

I think people who have in-depth information about any of the questions asked in the Pew survey would have questions about interpreting what the answers mean. While surveys like this tend to suggest optimism is good and preferable to pessimism, the fact is that skepticism often reflects a grasp of reality.

Among the other opinions expressed by the survey group are:

  • In 40 years computers will converse like people.
  • Artificial limbs will work better than natural ones.
  • Most of our energy will not come from oil, coal and gas.
  • The world will get warmer.
  • We’ll have a major energy crisis.

These findings reflect the subjects’ attitudes and aspirations than they are an analysis of the future. Most of the challenges to be faced during the 21st century will be massive processes not seen in the history of the Earth. There’s really no precedent for the confluence of forces unfolding in our time.

One final thing. Forty-one percent of the respondents to the Pew survey expect Jesus Christ to return to Earth some time in the next forty years. That would make moot the dire speculation by Fenner that the human species will become extinct in the next 100 years wouldn’t it?

Advertisements

0 Responses to “Uh-oh. In the minority…again”



  1. Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


Umm, Delicious Bookmarks

Archives

RSS The Vortex

  • An error has occurred; the feed is probably down. Try again later.

%d bloggers like this: