25
Feb
10

Hmm, is the China juggernaut that obvious?

I’ve done several posts — as recently as yesterday — mentioning the spectacular rise of China as a change driver with widespread effects. My assessment is that this will have big impact on people everywhere and be a disquieting influence that will disturb a lot of people. But my question now is: Am I just reitterating what’s become obvious to Americans?

In today’s Washington Post there’s a report of a Washington Post-ABC poll headlined: “Poll shows concern about American influence waning as China’s grows.”

Facing high unemployment and a difficult economy, most Americans think the United States will have a smaller role in the world economy in the coming years, and many believe that while the 20th century may have been the “American Century,” the 21st century will belong to China. […]

Asked whether this century would be more of an “American Century” or more of a “Chinese Century,” Americans divide evenly in terms of the economy (41 percent say Chinese, 40 percent American) and tilt toward the Chinese in terms of world affairs (43 percent say Chinese, 38 percent American). A slim majority say the United States will play a diminished role in the world’s economy this century, and nearly half see the country’s position shrinking in world affairs more generally.

This has a lot of Americans worried. Losing economic hegemony is not only perceived as a loss of power, but it also suggests that perhaps the country has lost its mojo, it’s in decline. I’d look at it another way. I’m a big fan of Fareed Zakaria’s 2008 book, The Post-American World. His first chapter is titled: “The Rise of the Rest.” His view is that America will remain a powerful and influential country, but other countries like China, India, and Brazil will gain much economically and gain world influence. In other words, wealth and power will have to be shared. His perspective suggests not that this is the end of American glory but that an adjustment to historical evolution is necessary.

The US is about 5% of the world’s population. Since WWII we’ve enjoyed enormous economic prosperity, military power, and prestigue. But history moves on, and the other 95% of the world’s people are developing too. How 5% would expect world dominance to last I don’t understand. Back in 1997 William Greider published a book I also admire: One World, Ready or Not: The Manic Logic of Global Capitalism. In essence, Greider said the capitalism widely advocated in America had won; communism was discredited. The consequence of that is that labor income would move to the masses of people around the world willing to work for less than Americans because they have a much lower standard of living. Capitalism is the force leveling incomes worldwide, and, hence, influence.

A participant in the WashPo survey put it pretty well:

Annetta Jordan, another poll participant, said in a follow-up interview that she has witnessed the shifting economic strength firsthand. Jordan, a mother of two from Sandoval, N.M., was working at a cellular telephone plant in the early 1990s as production and hiring were ramped up. By 1992, the plant had 3,200 workers. “Then this whole China thing started and we were very quickly training Chinese to take our jobs,” she said. Now the plant has 100 people left. “We’re transferring our wealth to China,” she said. “I see that as a very negative thing. When I was younger, a lot of corporations had a lot of pride and patriotism toward America. But corporations have changed. If we in the U.S. go down, that’s okay; they’ll just move their offices to Beijing.”

Ahh, the fruits of success!

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